U.S. Economic Data Is Turning Down, Will The Fed Notice?

Summary

  • Both ISM Manufacturing and Industrial Production have gone into contraction in recent months.
  • When these two indicators are both in contraction, we are in or near a recession over 90% of the time.
  • Recessions tend to align with bear markets in stocks, so assessing one's portfolio risk profile and potentially reducing equities may be appropriate at this time.